[MUD-Dev] Probability (was: Alright... IF your gonan do DESIESE...)

[Shawn Halpenny]

clawrenc at cup.hp.com wrote:
> 
> In <338B0F3B.2781E494 at iname.com>, on 05/27/97
>    at 08:36 PM, Shawn Halpenny <malachai at iname.com> said:
> 
> >I get positively droolly over issues involving probability (it's one
> >of the few things in life I've got firm, unshakeable belief in), and
> >am mixing a goodly bit of it into everything in my model (things like
> >inverse-probability regions, really nasty probabilistic disasters and
> >such as-of-yet nebulous stuff).  Truth be told, I don't even know
> >everywhere it will pop up, just that there will be a stinking lot of
> >it.  Thus, I'm particularly intrigued with what'll be in this other
> >post.
> 
> I'm buried right now and so don't know if I'll get to it this week.
> However, you hit the nail on the head above: making a coherent
> probability field for the entire game, this allowing the case concepts
> of "luck" and "bad luck" to be selectively altered by the game both in
> various areas, and for speficic characters, their objects, etc,  (eg
> touch the faery stone to be lucky).  Another simple if ultimately
> nasty spell would be to invert an opposing character's porbaiblity
> matrix -- thus the vastly imporably suddenly becomes probable (special
> case the handling of impossible becoming must-happen), and their best
> skills/probabilities becomes useless.

_Exactly_.  I love the idea of the swaggering hero wandering into one of
these "inverse-probability bubbles" and suddenly discovering that his
neighbor's domestic cat can clean his clock, while the Lord of the Red
Dragons can't even scratch his full plate armor (which, btw, he can now
float across the river in).  Perfect!  Just turns everything upside
down.

The permutations are pretty much endless, since once you start mucking
with probability, the impossible (and implausible) becomes much more
attractive.  You're not even bound by the rules of the universe anymore.

--
Shawn Halpenny

"Purgamentum init, exit purgamentum"
                            - Latin for All Occasions