[MUD-Dev] The great myth of broadband

[John Bertoglio]

> Brian Green
> Sent: Sunday, May 21, 2000 3:19 PM

<some cut>

> The most interesting is one by Jupiter communications:
>
> --------------------
> U.S Net Population Broadband Adoption Plans
>
>  2% Within the next six months
>  3% Within the next year
>  5% Within the next two years
>  5% Already have broadband
> 11% As soon as it's offered
> 73% No plans to switch to broadband
> --------------------
>
> Yep, that's right, about three-quarters of current net users have no
> plans to upgrade from their 56K (if that) modems.

<The crowd waits as JB puts on his market research hat. (Over 10 years in
the biz.)>

While consumer research can be very accurate, one must be very careful about
how a study is presented and then interpreted. Judging future consumer
behavior is tricky, especially when it involves new concepts where the
benefits are not yet clear. Essentially, I would challenge the 73% figure.
If you asked pre-Model T consumers if they expect to buy a car in the
future, many will say no because they know they will never be able to afford
a hand crafted motor car. All of a sudden the Model T exists and they are
car owners. Disruptive technologies tend to explode once they get past their
novelty and early adopter stages. I suggest the same will happen with
broadband.

A couple of additional points:

(1) Many people will acquire broadband access without knowing it or
requesting it. It will simply be the only method offered whether it comes
down the TV cable or multiplexed over power company lines.

(2) Major changes in non-US telecoms are happening. (Yes, there is a world
outside of our borders). A friend in England is participating in a trial of
unmetered DSL access in London. The demand for unmetered access is huge and
will (despite monopoly telecoms) happen. Late arrivals to new technology
tend to bypass older tools. Once you allow unmetered access, you might as
well switch people into high speed circuits and get the extra performance to
justify the initial rip-off prices which are offered.

(3) The majority of the people who will be on the net in 5 years are not
there now. Most of them will use some form of "always on" access because of
convenience issues. It turns out that this also describes most broadband
schemes.

<some cut>

> (Can hear the Skotos crowd cheering in the background. ;)

There are good reasons for any low bandwidth system to cheer. While
broadband is coming, one would be a fool to discount the advantages of a
system which does not require it. The key is to balance user interface
expectations (framed largely by web browsers) and the building of a
compelling experience. There's another post in that topic, but I don't have
the energy tonight for another "HTML-based MUD as the future of the hobby"
rant.

John A. Bertoglio
  _____

PulsePoll.com <http://www.pulsepoll.com/>
| 503.781.3563
| jb at pulsepoll.com




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