[MUD-Dev] About.com article on Skotos

[Christopher Allen]

SavantKnowsAll at cs.com wrote:

> I'm a big MUD fan, believe it or not.  Have been since I got my
> first internet connection through AOL DOS.  I was being frank - and
> as many of you know, we at LtM aren't afraid of being brutally
> honest.

> The article, and Skotos itself (from what I've read thus far), is
> not really proposing anything new.  It's all been done before, and
> will continue to be done.  If people want to get together for a
> small group of free form RP online, there's plenty of (free) small
> MUDs out there.  The main business draw would be the large scale
> MUDs that are promised, and as I said, the market can only bare one
> powerhouse in that area, and Simutronics is it.

As I understand the fundamentals of your argument, you don't think
that a new MUD system can offer anything new or interesting, and even
if we did, there will not be a good business doing that as Simutronics
already has all the business there is.

I'll leave the issues of whether we can offer anything new or
interesting -- there has been a lot of commentary on this issue on
your web site at

  http://boards.xrgaming.net/forums/read.php?f=95&i=25957&t=25957 .

However, I would like to speak your business issue.

I agree that Simutronics is the current market leader. But by what
argument can you say that there can be only one powerhouse? Or what
argument is there that says that if we wanted to we couldn't
eventually take their position as the text-dominant game leader? After
all, they seem to be slowly leaving that business in order to build
Hero's Journey. In three years, they might not even want to be in the
text-dominant game business anymore.

Simutronics has a number of major long-term issues with their online
text games:

   * their text games are using technologies that were written in the
     early 80's and have encountered severe architectural problems
     because of it

   * they have ceased investing seriously in their text games, instead
     are investing in the graphic HJ instead

   * they have ceased trying to create new text game titles

   * they have never tried to harness the creativity of their players
     to create new games

We at Skotos do not plan to directly compete to get Simutronics
existing customers. Friends will want to remain with their
friends. However, we can compete for new players, and have been doing
so successfully so far in the short time since the beta release of our
first game.

Skotos' business model differentiates itself from Simutronics in six
ways:

   * The Skotos community will be diverse, spreading across a number
     of genres, interests, and styles of game play

   * Skotos will have close ties and co-marketing with existing
     paper-RPG companies and communities.

   * Skotos players will have access to multiple games, not just one.

   * All members of the Skotos community have the opportunity to
     become StoryTellers and/or StoryBuilders.

   * The Skotos games will focus on storytelling, community, quality,
     and usability/ease of creation.

   * Our technology base is modern, web-centric, and written to
     professional standards.

> Pay-to-play MUDs have been tried: Achaea, Inferno, Legends,
> Avelon...  and while they may be profitable to pay a single salary
> or so, they aren't exactly the basket to put all your eggs in. Also,
> there are /still/ games trying to break into the mainstream
> pay-to-play MUD market Aeternity (www.aeternity.com - former
> Simutronics employee) and Unwritten Legends (www.unwritten.net) to
> name a couple.  Apparently people still think there's money to be
> made in it - I'm just of a different opinion.  To each his own.

However, I think none of the pay-for-play that you have mentioned were
focused on business -- their goals (at least in the beginning) were
focused on the technology or game play that they wanted to offer. At
Skotos, the business model came first, then we built technology to
match that model.  Also, none of those companies are well financed,
Skotos is.

> I'll stand by what I said - I've matured to where I expect quality
> game play /as well as/ quality graphics.

I agree that text games are not everyone -- we are not trying to build
another broad title like Star Wars Galaxy, UO, Everquest. However,
there is a huge number of people on the internet that want something
more sophisticated, or more 'niche' then what the big guys will
support.

For instance, take a look at the economics of our latest licensed
title, Iron Claw. Iron Claw is an existing paper-RPG in the
anthropomorphic genre, i.e. it is a furry fantasy. They have a loyal,
often fanatical customer base that numbers in the thousands. As our
game is closely tied in with future paper-RPG supplements, we can
probably get a fair number of the most dedicated players of that game.

Say only 1,000 players join to play Iron Claw. This is $10,000 a month
for Skotos, $1,500 a month to the StoryBuilder who created the game
(enough for a serious part-time person), and $500 to Sanguine
Productions the brand owner (why would they do this for only $500 --
for the co-marketing and buzz). That nets Skotos $8,000 a month to
maintain the net connection, second-tier support, etc., or revenues
minus royalties of just short of $100K a year.

We expect to have 10 such small games over the next 12-18 months. That
is over $1M in revenues, which is enough to support our entire
organization at the size we expect to be by that time.

Now, what if one of these games is a hit? Simutronics has roughly 12K
customers in their second most popular game, Dragon Realms. If we have
a 'hit' only half as successful that would be 6K customers, or $60K a
month -- $9K goes to the StoryBuilder(s), $3K to Sanguine, and the
balance of $58K a month puts us solidly profitable.

At some point, some sub-section of our userbase will extra privileges
-- Simutronics currently has 25% of their customers paying $29.95 for
extra characters, access to special scenarios, a room, priority
assists, etc. I'm sure that we can too can offer an attractive premium
package. We can also charge for special events and certain exclusive
games.

In three to five years, we might have three to seven 'hits' that have
up to 10K customers, maybe 50-100 or so communities of 1K customers,
and thousands of small stages, enhanced chat clubhouses, and 'try it
you might like it' games. At this level, we can give a return on good
investment to our investors. No single game will be as big as
EverQuest will be by that point, but as an enterprise, a 'geocities of
games' we might be as big as one of the big companies offering only
one or two games.

As David Whatley, the founder of Simutronics, said in his reply to
your article:

> I'll tell ya the truth: There is plenty of money here.  And, as has
> been pointed out, the costs are SUBSTANTIALLY lower than GMUDS. Both
> fixed and variable costs are much lower. My profit margin
> is... um... envious. And my NSX is sweet. (smile) > But to make
> money here you need much more than a good game design. If you get in
> this for money, then you must be a business guy first, second and
> third. Because there is no limit to the number of great designs that
> have failed as a business. Conversely, there are many great
> money-machines out there disguised as lack-luster game titles. If
> you can hit on both of those cylinders at once, you will rock.

(some text deleted)

> So my advice to anyone getting into this field: forget about
> super-duper AI for orcs and +100 vorpal blade innovations. Think
> about how you will capture market share and service your
> customers. Think about how your costs can be contained and avoid
> limiting your upside with inflexible pricing models. And, after
> heeding these words, if you find success in your endeavor, don't say
> I never did you any favors. (grin)

-- Christopher Allen

------------------------------------------------------------------------
.. Christopher Allen                                 Skotos Tech Inc. ..
..                           1512 Walnut St., Berkeley, CA 94709-1513 ..
.. <http://www.Skotos.net>               o510/647-2760  f510/647-2761 ..

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