[MUD-Dev] Future of MMOGs

[Joe Andrieu]

From: Crosbie Fitch

> Anyway, as we saw with the dot-com boom, the monetisation and
> profitabilty of the Web (even thought it was illusory in most
> cases) was not what prompted Tim Berners-Lee. Necessity is the
> mother of invention. We NEED a public 3D cyberspace system. The
> wishful accounting and dot-com type land-grab can happen
> afterwards.

> But it's a chicken and egg. Does the first version happen first,
> and then a community of Open Source coders join in, or do you
> gather the coders first, and the first version happens later? The
> pump needs priming, and so we need a CERN equivalent....

Necessity was not what prompted Tim Berners-Lee. He didn't need http
and html to do what he was doing at CERN (and we don't NEED a public
3D cyberspace system--it won't feed more people or keep us safer or
healthier; we will not die without it).

No, what became "The Web" just seemed a better way. As most
engineers do, Tim enjoyed finding and building a better way to do
the job.  Its rise to the top was, IMO, particularly
Darwinian. There were other technologies out there for navigating
net resources, like Archie and Gopher and WAIS. And there were
competing network models. Do you remember CompuServe, who was the
gorilla that AOL outplayed in the consumer market? Or SprintNet or
even FidoNet, perhaps the best example of a worldwide network built
on the gift economy? All of these were trying to address the
"information need" that dominates a computer-enable society. Tim's
project and the Internet was just the better way to do it.

So, don't look for CERN, look for a better way to do it. Either
develop it yourself or keep looking for that gem hiding in some
engineer's pet project file. If you find it, share it. Use
it. Contribute to building a new medium.

Perhaps EverQuest is the CompuServe of 3D cyberspace, destined to be
out-matched by some future, easier technology, and out-marketed by a
mainstream-targeted company. If that's true, we are probably still
in the mid 80's in that business cycle: the network exists, a few
companies offer private services using proprietary clients, the
"AOL" hasn't yet launched, and the technology that will transform
everything is still five years from creation and ten years from
impact.

In addition to the technology, we also need the CompuServe's and
AOL's to help educate the world about the possibilities of the
technology.  IMO, that's perhaps the most important role of today's
leading MPOGs, along with their explorations into user interfaces
and content models. I can't wait to see the impact of Star Wars
Galaxies and The Sims Online.  People who would never consider
paying $10/mo for EverQuest will sign up and try out these games.
They are, IMO, very much the educational vanguard that will help
consumers prepare for a much wider adoption of 3D cyberspace
technology. But it will take time. In fact, if I buy into my own
theory, it'll be 2012 before 3D cyberspace looks like the World Wide
Web of 1995.

That seems like a long time, but in terms of social shifts, it feels
just about right to me. Besides, maybe the economy will be ready by
then, too.

-j

p.s.

Don't forget also that the web was driven by services for commercial
purposes: shopping, customer service, accessing and managing
corporate systems, etc. Going from text to 2D was a huge leap for
enabling those needs.  We have not yet seen that same leap in value
going from 2D to 3D except in a few limited areas such as CAD or
simulations. But perhaps that is still to emerge. The value in
entertainment is quite obvious, but may not lead to open systems at
all, as the rest of entertainment technology seems to be dominated
by proprietary systems. But I digress into the inevitability of Open
Source.

--
Joe Andrieu
Realtime Drama
joe at andrieu.net
+1 (805) 705-8651



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