[MUD-Dev] Expected value and standard deviation.

[Ben Chambers]

From: Jeff Cole

> One of these friends I am teaching has experienced recently modest
> (not to her!) success playing on-line and is eager to move up in
> stakes.  She is an engineer, but even if intellectually I can
> explain her "success" has more to do with standard deviation than
> with her skill, she resists "believing" it.

> Still, it seems to me that if advancement were primarily based on
> decreasing standard deviation rather than increasing expected
> value, a designer could provide a much broader gameplay
> experience.  Also, if advancement were less obvious, maybe players
> would focus on aspects of the game other than advancement.

I've actually been exploring a system similar to this.  Instead of
numbers being generated through a formula like 4d6, it would be
generated by two numbers, one representing the center and the other
representing the spread (standard deviation).  Different skills
would affect each in different ways.  For example, a thieves
backstab would lower the standard deviation and maybe raise the
center a little.  A barbarian's wild swing would raise the center a
lot but also increase the standard deviation.
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