[MUD-Dev] Expected value and standard deviation.

[Jeremy Hill]

Saturday, August 30, 2003, 4:07 AM, Scion Altera wrote:

> It seems to me that a lot of this depends on player knowledge and
> skill, then. Given a balanced team on a fair map in the RTS game,
> an experienced player has a high average and low standard
> deviation, and will in all likelyhood beat the novice with a low
> average and high standard deviation. Given balanced characters in
> a fair arena on a MUD, the same rule applies: the experienced
> MUDder will use his resources more effectively and beat the
> novice. My conclusion is that the player brings the standard
> deviation in knowledge, raw talent, and skill. The game brings the
> power level in comparison to other players, and the ability to
> alter it. I think it's this way in MUDs, RTSes, and poker.

In an RTS, another limiting constraint is time: two players may be
equally skilled in terms of how to create, organize, and dispatch
armies and resources, but one player may be faster or more efficient
and will inevitably win against an equally-matched player.  We could
easily argue that efficiency is a factor of skill, however, and
discard the time factor for RTSes.

In a MUD or MMO, though, there is no synchronous clock that both
players must abide by.  Well, allow me to correct myself--in combat,
time is synchronous, but during the resource gathering/harvesting
period, if no direct interaction is involved, no synchronous clock
is involved.  One player, Bob, may be doubly efficient at killing
monster X for gold, but player Abel may log three times the hours as
Bob.  Therefore, even though Bob is more skillful at killing mob X,
Abel, who is not as skilled, still gathers 150% the resources that
Bob does.  For continuity's sake let us say that Bob and Abel are
equally efficient in combat, so when they fight (be it PK, armies,
or whatnot), Abel will inevitably win because, even though Bob is a
more efficient gatherer, Abel simply has more resources.

-- Jeremy Hill
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