[MUD-Dev] Expected value and standard deviation.

[Amanda Walker]

On Friday, September 5, 2003, at 09:33 AM, Koster, Raph wrote:

> I must say that the fact that players prefer to play a boring way
> that gives them advancement over a fun way that gives slower
> advancement seems to be well-proven over decades of online games.

Different people have different metrics for "fun", though.  Even a
single person will have different metrics for "fun" in different
contexts.  Now, before I get pulled into the "great FUN debate"
black hole...

> Here are the assumptions I am operating under: players seeking
> advancement will be driving towards optimal advancement. Optimal
> advancement will include making the activity as predictable as
> possible. Predictable activities become less fun over time.

It's not just advancement.  It can be any in-game reward.  Allow me
the temerity to put on my "player" hat and use SWG as an example
:-).  As a player, I'm generally completely apathetic about
"advancement" in games, and highly interested in novelty and
conversation.  Classic explorer/socializer.

I like the entertainer/musician stuff in SWG.  After a few hours of
learning how it worked, it became clear that it would be great fun
if I had the widest variety of options available (instruments,
tunes, effects, etc.).  In SWG, there's only one route to this (not
counting bug exploits): punching a time card for hours and hours and
hours of in-game time.  There's only one way to that goal, and it
becomes boring well before it accomplishes anything.  It's not a
matter of optimization: the game is structured so that boring
repetition is the only thing that is rewarded (in this respect, at
least).  Only one path, no risk, no quests or other risk/bonus
gambles, just an utterly predictable time clock.

Luckily, I like to talk, so I set up macros to do the boring part
and spent 6 weeks of casual but regular gameplay running those and
otherwise treating the game as a chat room.  Would I have taken a
less predictable path if it were available?  You bet.
Unfortunately, this particular reward (in-game performance options)
are given solely based on odometer reading.  If there's a desirable
goal with only one path to it, that path is going to become very
well trodden by people interested in that goal.  On the flip side,
of course, is that if there are alternate paths, the achievers will
figure out (and post web walkthroughs of) the least-effort path.

But put more generally, the whole xp/level/capability-unlocking
framework *produces* the effect you are observing.  Anything that
rewards repetitive action is going to produce repetitive action,
because that's what you're reinforcing.


Amanda Walker
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