[MUD-Dev] Expected value and standard deviation.

[Kwon J. Ekstrom]

I tried to reply to this last week, but apparently it bounced so
here goes take II.

Koster, Raph wrote:
> From: Katie Lukas
>> And Raph Koster wrote:

>>>    There's no way to get rid of the "boring" way to play your
>>>    game. Players can always choose to play conservatively to
>>>    maximize return while minimizing risk.

> I must say that the fact that players prefer to play a boring way
> that gives them advancement over a fun way that gives slower
> advancement seems to be well-proven over decades of online games.

Darwin's theory of evolution is often quoted as "Survival of the
Fittest" where fittest is defined as organisms that can best adapt
to their environment.

I have to say that homosapiens are quite effective at adapting to
their environment, whatever it may be.  (Try reading about some
things POW's do to survive in the worst conditions that could be
arranged by their captors)

You could consider (and most people do) farming as more "boring"
than hunting... yet almost every major human society farms for food
instead of going into the forest to forage.  (yes, I know a few
horticulturists who find an amazing amount of entertainment in
farming, and some major cultures fished instead of farming)

You see, it's quite obvious that humans, in anything they do, always
attempt to acheive a maximum gain for minimal risk (known as
min-maxing).  (notice the word "attempt")

Now, lets take this to games.  You've got on most MU*'s a variety of
systems to choose from with a fair amount of choices in each system.

If you think about the number of systems a typical RPG has to
maintain, and then start calculating the number of interactions
between these systems, it quickly becomes mind boggling.

Take the number of interactions and multiply it by the number of
players attempting to acheive "optimal advancement" and you start
getting into some really astronomical numbers.

To state that you can create a game that contains all of the
abilities of a current RPG, without the possibility for the players
to find a "boring" but effective method of advancement, is pure
arrogance.

Every individual is different, and finds entertainment in different
things.  I personally find "playing" games as boring.  I would
rather be programming because although code is EXTREMELY
repetitious, there are an infinite number of problems with a near
infinite number of solutions.

To acheive the same effect in a game, you would need an infinite
amount of content, something that is NOT acheivable with current
technology. (although I know many developers who are working on
creating quality generated content)

I have a saying... "With any sufficiently complex system, no one is
smart enough to account for every possible outcome of a seemingly
minor change" otherwise known as the law of unintended consequences.

-- Kwon J. Ekstrom
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