[MUD-Dev] MMORPG Cancellations: The sky is falling?

[Sean Howard]

"Samantha LeCraft" <slecraft at onlinealchemy.com> wrote:

> So you don't think we'll pendulum-swing back to "world" oriented
> rather than "game" oriented, but you also don't think that a new
> generation of MMO designers will change the direction of the
> genre?  Are we then neither moving backward nor moving forward?

I don't think there is a difference between "game" and "world". I
was saying that I don't think that the game industry will be so
quick to look for outside help and influence in the design and
development of MMOGs.  Just like the rest of the game industry,
designers will be people who are raised from within - Q&A or
programmers who graduate to the top.

> If we all saw the same possibilities regardless of our experience,
> we'd all make the same games, and the world would be devoid of all
> creativity.

I didn't say we all see the same possibilities. I'm saying that
experience doesn't effect creativity to that extent unless
experience is the ONLY thing you've got to build from.

> I would be willing to bet that the success of your webcomic is at
> least partially *because* you had never made a webcomic before.

That's possible, but the comic was successful in exactly the same
ways I thought it would be. When I decided to make a webcomic, I
designed it around the skills which I had, and the things which make
a webcomic addictive.

For instance, I'm not much of an artist, but due to a childhood of
making videogames, I can draw pixel art rather well. That the comic
is uniquely defined by it meant nothing. The comic was designed to
build a readership quick, so I use a lot of foreshadowing,
cliffhangers, reversals, reveals, and past references to tie the
reader to the next comic. It was updated daily to make the comic
become part of the reader's daily routine, like checking email.

The reason the comic is successful is because I knew what I was
doing when I designed it. I was conscious of each design decision I
made and the effect those decisions would have on the final
product. It doesn't matter that it was a webcomic, it could've been
anything.

> I agree, and I think reading what has been written about MUDs and
> early MMOs and MMO development in general is important.  But just
> because I've read "My Tiny Life" and know how Julian Dibbell felt
> about LambdaMOO doesn't mean that I'll ever understand what it was
> like to be there at that time.  I'll never know what it would have
> felt like to *me*.

No, but you know how just reading about LambdaMOO felt to you. You
may not have personal insight, but you do have insight. You have
learned about LambdaMOO. You are no longer ignorant of what
LambdaMOO is or some of the major events which went on there. I WAS
on LambdaMOO at that time, but I wasn't around when many of the
events described happened or knew any of the people he talked about
in the book. My appreciation for the MOO only became more complete
by reading the accounts of someone else.

There's this big argument I have from time to time with game
industry folks of knowledge vs experience. I'm hesitant to even
bring it up because just the mention of it tends to incite flames of
all sorts.

> So yes, we can draw on the experience of others, as they have set
> down in writing or tell us personally, but that can never replace
> our own experiences.

Experience is personal. You can not give someone else your
experience. The second you translate it via words or pictures,
someone else is going to adapt it into their own understanding -
their own knowledge.  I believe that knowledge is something that we
can share and something that we can learn in safety to prepare us
for later. You may believe that experience is more powerful, when it
is merely more personal.

> So then we'll be moving forward, and possibly splitting into
> sub-genres?

I think it could, but the marketing and business plan currently
employed by MMORPGs is not enough to drive that change by itself, or
if it does, then not quickly. MMORPGs last on average 3-5 years and
take just as long to develop. Fewer of them are profitable which
means funding is tighter for each additional MMORPG. This means that
it will take longer to diversify.

And at $15 a month, you can't play very many so that there is a
limited market - a new MMORPG must take its players from an old one.

> But who is driving the split into sub-genres?  Is it the same
> people who were making MMOs five and ten years ago?

I don't care who does it, as long as there are at least two
competing viewpoints to drive debates. As long as there is arguing,
there will be progress.

> Has it been completely unaffected by the opinions of those who
> have entered the industry in the last five years?

I'd rather not get into it about the game industry, but I would be
very surprised if anyone who entered the industry in the last five
years could find a voice for those opinions.

> Five years from now, will the same people be driving whatever new
> innovation we have then, or will it be at least partially driven
> by yet another new generation of MMO developers?

Will Wright. Shigeru Miyamoto. Warren Spector. John Carmack. Richard
Garriot. The same people driving the industry today are the same
people who were driving it 15 years ago. And the few game designers
with known names which are rather new (Chris Taylor) are little more
than one hit wonders or understudies with the same philosophies and
thoughts as their bosses.

The frontier is gone. All the land has been claimed. Or so it would
seem.  Maybe there is just a rarity of brilliant minds in the game
industry. Who knows?

> We *have* indie MMO development.

I should've clarified a little better. Not just indie MMOG
development, but a lower barrier of entry to spur on more indie
projects and give them a better than fighting chance of succeeding.

> Heh, if you know of a way to streamline the development process
> down to six months and $100k, let me know.  My bank account would
> thank you.

I could think of a few hundred ways to simplify development. Alone,
they barely make a difference, but together, they could be huge
savings. For instance, 2D games requires something like a tenth of
the budget of a 3D game, and requires less than half the time and
staff (I forgot where I read that statistic - Game Architecture and
Design, maybe).

- Sean Howard
www.squidi.net
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