[MUD-Dev2] [DESIGN] Expected value and standard deviation

[cruise]

Thus spake Nicholas Koranda...
> ********************************************************************
> * REPOST
> *
> * Original Poster:  Jeff Cole
> *
> * Thu Aug 28, 2003 1:27 pm
> *
> ********************************************************************
> 
> I have been playing poker for many years and recently have been
> teaching a couple of friends Texas Hold 'Em (due in large part to
> ESPN/Travel Channel). I had to recently explain to them that it is
> not as much about maximizing expected value, as it is balancing
> expected value with standard deviation.
> 
> And that got me to thinking. In MUDs/MMO* advancement entails
> (ridiculously?) increasing the expected value of a player's
> performance. Gameplay would certainly be more complex if, like
> poker, advancement required one to balance expected value with
> standard deviation--if advancement involved more decreasing of
> standard deviation and less increasing of expected value.

Could this be summed up as: switching an increase in power for an 
increase in control and/or available information?

To be honest, an explanation of exactly what is meant by "balancing 
expected value with standard deviation" - statistics was always my least 
favourite part of maths :P

I /think/ it is something like my "blademaster" character type from my 
combat system proof-of-concept:

http://casual-tempest.net/projects/gd/systems/combat/story.php

who can recognise enemy behaviour more reliably, and is less likely to 
randomly fluff a move - but I could well be well off :P