"The Next Big Thing" (was RE: [MUD-Dev2] [DESIGN} Who to design for?)

[Mike Sellers]

Sean Howard wrote:
> > In this case, the common wisdom is that you CAN'T predict
> > the Next Big Thing
> 
> You can't predict with 100% accuracy, no, but I think you can definitely
> make pretty good predictions on the next big thing.

Man, that's incredibly wishful thinking.  

Right now there are thousands of incredibly smart, dedicated, thoughtful,
creative, talented individuals and teams hard at work on what they hope and
believe will be the Next Big Thing across a variety of industries.  Some of
them might even be right, but we'll never know because they'll lose out due
to luck, undercapitalization, timing, etc.  Others will be close but won't
quite get it.  Some will be just plain wrong.  And one or two will be,
seemingly miraculously, proven right about their expectations.  

> At the very least, you can say what WON'T be the Next Big Thing. Just work
> backwards. :)

Again, wishful thinking.  I'm not saying it's entirely hit-or-miss, but
there are so many factors that go into what catches on that have little to
do with the idea or even the team -- timing and execution make an enormous
difference -- that saying you can predict what will or won't be a big hit is
just silly.

Very smart, experienced, perceptive, talented people thought The Sims was
crap, that Majestic was going to be great, that the Segway would change how
we live, that the electron was a useless oddity, that TV would never catch
on, that you couldn't sell books online, that search would never be
profitable, etc., etc.  

The one thing about the Next Big Thing is that it's almost *impossible* to
predict -- except in retrospect, when everyone is suddenly much more
perceptive.


Mike Sellers