[MUD-Dev] The great myth of broadband

[Par Winzell]

Brian Green writes:
 > The most interesting is one by Jupiter communications:
 > 
 > --------------------
 > U.S Net Population Broadband Adoption Plans
 > 
 >  2% Within the next six months
 >  3% Within the next year
 >  5% Within the next two years
 >  5% Already have broadband
 > 11% As soon as it's offered
 > 73% No plans to switch to broadband
 > --------------------
 > 
 > Yep, that's right, about three-quarters of current net users have no
 > plans to upgrade from their 56K (if that) modems.

I have to say, given the fact that Jupiter is in the business of
intelligence, it surprises me that you give (and deduce from) only
raw statistics; facts without interpretation. People are not very
good at self-analysis. I'd wager "no plans" also contains everyone
who responded with "eh?".

If broadband was offered cheaply and simply to everyone tomorrow,
the above chart would mutate beyond recognition. Didn't Jupiter
do some kind of "What will _actually_ happen is..." chart?

 > My own mother is a prime example.  She's heavy into online card games
 > and chat; she'd be a perfect target for some non-traditional types of
 > online games.  However, don't hold your breath waiting for her to get
 > broadband.  She's quite happy with her 56k dialup account.

Most people don't upgrade _anything_ because they see a need, they do
it because they are pushed into it, and because old technologies are
very explicitly and manipulatively obsoleted. Granted, that's not
going to happen anytime soon with 56k, but still, when the broadband
push finally comes, surely it will be the same insiduous "you must
have this" campaign that heralds any mainstream technology update
in the western world? I doubt your mother is immune in the long run.


 > (Can hear the Skotos crowd cheering in the background. ;)

Ha! We will succeed regardless of alternate technologies!

Pär



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