[MUD-Dev] business models

[shren]

On Mon, 21 May 2001, Matt Mihaly wrote:
> On Mon, 21 May 2001, Jon Morrow wrote:
 
>> Which game(s) does the 15% figure come from?  Or is it a commonly
>> accepted figure?  I only ask because I'm in the process of
>> projecting the number of users online at a time for my current
>> project, and the number needs to be as accurate as possible.  If
>> there are any other more accurate ways of estimating, I'd love to
>> hear about them.
 
> I think Raph mentioned it here. I might just be imagining things, as
> you're the second person to have no familiarity with that figure at
> all.
 
>> Also, to challenge 15%, doesn't GemStone III have a total player
>> base of about 60,000 on their regular server?  I heard that number
>> about a year ago, but I don't remember who it was from, so it might
>> not be reputable.  They generally have 800-1200 players on at a
>> time these days.

> 800-1200 online and they have 60,000 subscribers? I have a difficult
> time believing that. If anyone can confirm that, my hat goes off to
> Simutronics, cause that is really excellent. Practically printing
> money since apparently most of their subscribers never even log on,
> or
> log on for exceptionally short periods of time.

I think the problem here is the view of 15% as a fixed percentage.  It
surely must change during the lifetime of the game.  When a game is
brand new, it's brand new to all of the players, and thus very likely
to hit numbers much higher than 15%.

On the other hand, players even slightly financially affluent will
hold onto accounts in games that they almost never/never play in just
because of the time investment in the account.  My UO account is
closed only because I closed it in a fit of pique when UO2 got
canceled.  Had that not happend, I very likely would have had an
account until the game closed it's doors.  Enough people like this,
and the 15% figure will drop very low for old games, such as the
Gemstone III example above.

--
"I've acquired quite a taste, for a well-made mistake."
  - Fiona Apple, _A_Mistake_
"That pretty much sums up how I feel about Microsoft Windows."
  - shren at io.com

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