[MUD-Dev] Expected value and standard deviation.

[Daniel.Harman at barclayscapital.com]

From: Katie Lukas [mailto:katie at stickydata.com]
> From Raph Koster:

>> Here are the assumptions I am operating under: players seeking
>> advancement will be driving towards optimal advancement. Optimal
>> advancement will include making the activity as predictable as
>> possible. Predictable activities become less fun over time.

>> Generally, any given game has multiple near-optimal paths. One of
>> these paths will be the one that minimizes risk to the point of
>> it being non-existent.

> I am absolutely *beyond* agreement about the statement that the
> players will always find the optimal path to a goal, and that even
> past that they will find any means to an end that is faster than
> any other means regardless of whether that was a design choice.  I
> personally believe that to underestimate the players and their
> ability to heat-seek optimal (in terms of time) methods to any
> game-related goal is virtually suicide on the part of the
> developer(s).

> That said, there are a couple of ideas that I find worth tackling
> here.  First is pretty central - the fact that optimal in games is
> measured in time.  Meaning - in other parts of life, the fastest
> route is not always optimal (for various reasons, many of which
> are purely subjective to the individual choosing the route).
> Second, that subjectivity alone is largely (not wholly, but
> largely) eliminated in games - the goal itself is chosen by the
> developers.

Surely the solution to this, is to limit advancement in each of the
axis the game offers, to a finite amount per day and week. Ideally
these would be soft caps, but if the xp you are getting for killing
monsters had dropped to 10% that's enough for people to investigate
other less optimal paths or branch out and explore other aspects of
the game.

Its certainly a mechanism that would suit me, as I'm naturally the
kind of obsessive power gamer that wouldn't even sacrifice the time
necessary to re-arrange my spell book in EQ because it got in the
way of leveling/finding a group etc.

It also removes some of the advantages given to kids/unemployed
slobs living in their parents basement. They may end up with broader
experiences, but they won't be setting some hideous pace of
advancement that people feel compelled to compete with.

Dan
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