[MUD-Dev] Re: Back to the Future (was Re: WIRED: Kilers have more fun)

[J C Lawrence]

On Wed, 01 Jul 1998 15:54:58 -0700 
Mike Sellers<mike at bignetwork.com> wrote:

> Actually, that brings to mind a question I've been meaning to ask
> for a bit: what do you all think comes *after* UOL?  It's lifespan
> isn't infinite (I saw the UOL box on the bargain shelf at the local
> EB, I believe), and yet none of the other potential contenders has
> emerged.  Is Everquest or Asheron's Call the heir apparent?  What
> about dark horses like The Rubies of Eventide, Azaria, or any of the
> other smaller operations (that may or may not ever actually see the
> light of day)?  

UOL is going to have reinvent itself to stay alive.  No surprises
there.  Fresh blood, both of the steaming flowing red variety in the
game, and the intellectual variety out of game and in the game world
and design are needed.  Mebe their next release will do that, mebe
not.  

As for who is next?  Dunno.  I would be extremely surprised if either
Asheron's call or Everquest see much success.  In essence they are
both attempting to deliver a pre-canned experience and seem to have
lost sight of the service they are attempting to offer, which isn't
"fun" per se (cf prior thread), but the ability for players to
__create__ "fun".  Similarly, while both, in different ways, claim to
be aiming for open ended game play, the game descriptions they've
released/discussed seem narrow.  Very rich and detailed (Asheron in
particular), but also narrow and constrained.  Nice safe, well known,
well charted, well defined experiences and game plays along
pre-defined and predicted recipes.

I just don't see narrow games generating much excitement.  Certainly
not enough excitement to overcome the pain of having to play across
low bandwidth laggy net connections.  Read the UOL player pages and
sites.  Where is the real quivering wild-eyed, "Omigodman, ya really
gotta try this thing!" frenzied excitement coming from?  It sure as
heck isn't in how to be a good miner, carpenter, or killing monsters.
Its in the, "Look at what I can DO!" areas.

Odd thought:

  Possibly the most crucial difference UOL and other prior and later
attempts is that UOL seemingly did not define any purposes or goals in
the world, either in code or their documentation.  The seemed to have
worked very hard to keep the game open ended.

Then again, I make my living writing code for OS vendors, not
MMPOG's.  

> M59 has stabilized with a small population but
> strangely enough a profitable (current terms, don't know about ROI
> for 3DO) setup.  I don't know about UOL, but I'd bet drinks at next
> CGDC that they're going to be _barely_ profitable if that.

I note the careful ambiguity as to *who* will be barely profitable,
M59 or UOL.

> Are commercial, graphical muds and mud-like games here to stay, or
> are they just an interesting experiment?

I'll stick my neck out and say that we're going to see the graphical
MUD-like game market undergo a fairly significant collapse and
consolidation within the next 3 years, possibly down to the level of
only one or two hangers-on.  It would be typical of such newly
developing fields if it did.

--
J C Lawrence                               Internet: claw at null.net
(Contractor)                               Internet: coder at ibm.net
---------(*)                     Internet: claw at under.engr.sgi.com
...Honourary Member of Clan McFud -- Teamer's Avenging Monolith...