[MUD-Dev] DGN: shard growth patterns?

[mud-dev-admin at kanga.nu]

A RL example will help illustrate my question:

Given current population trends, Japan faces serious economic threats
over the next twenty years. Due to historical fertility rates (4.5
children immediately after WWII; approximately 1.6 today) and
increasing lifespans, Japan will soon become the oldest country in the
world, an estimated 24 percent of their population will be over the
age of 65 by the year 2020.  This compared to an estimated 16 percent
for the US and UK.

Last year, the United Nations determined that Japan is greying so
quickly i t would need to import over 600,000 workers annually to keep
its working population stable. The Japanese government is busy
devising ways to cope with growing social security and health
problems. Japanese are beginning to talk not only about ''retirement''
but about ''second life'', with many taking up other jobs or going
into their own businesses, hobbies or doing volunteer community work.

The Japanese can plan today for tomorrow's economic problems because
we can predict the shape of future populations 20 years from now by
using certain variables and historical patterns as guides. These RL
factors are useless, however, for MMOGs. As opposed to being born, we
emerge full-grown. As opposed to living 70 odd years, our online lives
can last anywhere from a few hours to several years. So I began to
wonder a few days ago whether there are any growth patterns that
you've seen on the large MMOGs that might be generalizable and used to
predict the shape of a population for future MMOGs a year after it's
release? 18 months? Four years?

There are a few reasons why I'm asking. I'm looking forward to an
MMORPG that is 12-18 months from release. The development team working
on the game is attempting to design a working economy. By all
accounts, they seem to be dealing with the microeconomic issues
well. For example, they've eliminated many inefficiencies such as
price ceilings and floors due to limited NPC vendor AI. Still, there
may be non-traditional macroeconomic issues that could still do them
in. For this issue at least, if we identify applicable growth
patterns, we may be able to predict various stages, characteristics of
each and problems that will arise. Knowing what types of problems may
arise, the development team (for this game and others) may be able to
build in tools to assist the live team intervene in useful ways, when
the time comes. Coming up with a definitive answer may not even
necessary.  Identifying all the various paths a population may go
down, the factors which lead to each and the obstacles faced may prove
just as useful.

The second reason, is because I'll be running a business in this
game. Armed in this information, I'll likely have a first-mover
advantage in positioning myself in the best markets. Also, I'll have a
better idea of when to exit a market or product.  :)

Finally, I'm trying to construct a line of reasoning for my instinct
that says the game's economy will certainly stagnate after a period of
time sufficient for the population 'born' at the release of the game
to 'mature'.


As a side note, if anyone would like to see an example of using
population trends to predict the future shape of international
finance, I'd recommend Hamish McRae's The World in 2020, published in
1994 by the Harvard Business School Press.
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