[MUD-Dev] [DGN] The psychology of random numbers

[Ted L. Chen]

On Jan 8 2004, Sean Kelly wrote:

> I'd argue that we first need to determine that these are the
> player expectations before managing them becomes an issue.  Are
> there games where players have argued "but I should have won, my
> strength was 5 points higher!?"

The most uncluttered example I can think of is the game RISK.
Invade a 3 army territory with 6 pieces and you'd think you'd win.
Experienced players know better than to rely on this assumption
since the 3 defenders might easily pick off the 6 pieces.  But what
about novice players?  They're the ones to most likely complain, but
generally do keep it in check since they do realize they're novices.

Luckily, RISK is a board and die game where it's readily apparent
that probability is in the mix (die being thrown and all that).
That helps reinforce to the novice player that "this is
probablisitic" when his six attackers die horribly.  But in a
MMORPG, the die is usually hidden.  The only thing left is the 3 vs
6 on the board.

- TLC
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