[MUD-Dev] Better Combat (long)

[J C Lawrence]

On Tue, 10 Aug 2004 16:37:04 +1000
Byron Ellacott <bje at apnic.net> wrote:

> I can't answer how chess players think, not being a capable one
> myself, but I can answer broadly how chess programs work, as was
> explained to me nine years ago.

http://www.nature.com/news/2004/040802/full/040802-19.html

The contention is:

--<cut>--
She found that novices were more likely to convince themselves that bad
moves would work out in their favour, because they focused more on the
countermoves that would benefit their strategy while ignoring those that
led to the downfall of their cherished hypotheses.

Conversely, masters tended to correctly predict when the eventual
outcome of a move would weaken their position. "Grand masters think
about what their opponents will do much more," says Byrne. "They tend to
falsify their own hypotheses."

....

The philosopher Karl Popper called this process of hypothesis testing
'falsification', and thought that it was the best way to describe how
science constantly questions and refines itself. It is often held up as
the principle that separates scientific and non-scientific thinking, and
the best way to test a hypothesis.

But cognitive research has shown that, in reality, many people find
falsification difficult. Until the latest study, scientists were the
only group of experts that had been shown to use falsification. And
sociological studies of scientists in action have revealed that even
they spend a great deal of their time searching for results that would
bolster their theories1. Some philosophers of science have suggested
that since there is so much rivalry within science, individuals often
rely on their peers to falsify their theories for them.

Byrne speculates that the behaviour may actually be widespread, but that
it could be limited to those who are expert in their field. She thinks
the ability to falsify is somehow linked to the vast database of
knowledge that experts such as grand masters - or scientists -
accumulate. "People who know their area are more likely to look for ways
that things can go wrong for them," she says.
--<cut>--

--
J C Lawrence
---------(*)                Satan, oscillate my metallic sonatas.
claw at kanga.nu               He lived as a devil, eh?
http://www.kanga.nu/~claw/  Evil is a name of a foeman, as I live.

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